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Oscar Picks

How to Win in Your Oscar Pool

Usually, my performance in Oscar pools is a highlight of my spring. Over the years, I’ve taken home VHS box sets of the Star Wars movies, family Oscar trophies, dinners at fairly nice restaurants and the ability to brag about my victory when speaking with family, friends and co-workers.

Last year was a different story. I struggled to get half of the picks right, which greatly undermines your credibility as a teacher of the movies.

This year, I’m out for redemption.

Oscar pools are all about strategy, so remember these five key rules before making your picks.

1. Pick the nominees that you think will win, not the ones you think should win.
If I were an Academy voter (and I’m still holding out hope for that), my picks would be different. In the context of an Oscar pool though, what you are really selecting is how the Academy voted, not how you think they should have voted. Make no mistake about it: a vote for Brad Pitt is not really a vote for your favorite actor. It’s an indication that you think the Academy members voted for Brad Pitt. This year they didn’t. So, don’t predict that they did.

2. Consult Entertainment Weekly’s odds section.
A number of sources will predict the Oscars. This year, Stephen Colbert is touting his five-for-five sweep in predicting the major Oscars last year. Others will make their picks known in newspaper columns, online polls or blogs like this. No matter how many of these you look at, make sure you consult Entertainment Weekly prior to the ceremony. They aren’t always right, but they are right enough to make you competitive in your pool.

3. Respect history.
This means respecting the history of the Academy and the ways they have voted in the past. It also means respecting the Academy’s desire to make history. The two are often times at odds, but they both play a role in voting. Some lament that Martin Scorsese was given an Oscar for "The Departed "without receiving the prize for "Taxi Driver," "Raging Bull" or "GoodFellas." To understand the pick, one must respect the Academy’s desire to get it right.  This year, Kate Winslet may be the new Martin Scorsese. Is "The Reader" her best performance? Maybe, maybe not. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter. Her ability to offer consistently high quality performances means she needs to be recognized. It’s simply not right for her to be walking around without an Oscar when other less talented actors have them on their shelves.

4. Respect the Academy’s stated and unstated goals.
The Academy Awards serves at least two purposes. First, they are there to recognize greatness in the motion picture arts and sciences. But secondly, they are there to promote the industry and the industry’s films. Every once in a while, a film like "Titanic" comes along and wins 11 Oscars. Usually, the awards are more spread out, allowing for a number of movies, spread across several studios to claim the title Academy Award winner. If you like "Slumdog Millionaire" this year, great, but I wouldn’t pick it to win every category for which it is nominated. Look for it to take home five to seven awards with the Academy spreading the wealth (and the ability to promote) to pictures like "Milk" and "Benjamin Button."

5. Remember that all Oscars are Oscars.
A common assumption is that the awards for Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Director, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress matter the most. But in most Oscar pools, all categories count the same. Where most pools are lost is not in Tilda Swinton’s upset win over Rudy Dee and Cate Blanchett, but in picks for Best Live Action Short, Best Documentary Short, Best Documentary, Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing and other overlooked categories. Make these picks just as carefully as the others. Don’t randomly guess at them unless you absolutely have to. Doing so could cost you your bragging rights.

And now, the envelope please, here are my picks for the 81st Annual Academy Awards …

  • Best Picture – Slumdog Millionaire
  • Best Director – Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
  • Best Actor – Sean Penn, Milk (apologies to Mickey Rourke, but your film doesn’t give the Academy the chance to make a statement about Prop 8)
  • Best Actress – Kate Winslet, The Reader (see above)
  • Best Supporting Actress – Viola Davis, Doubt (many, including EW, are putting their money on Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona, a film directed by Academy fav Woody Allen, but with four acting nominations, someone has to win from Doubt and Viola Davis is certainly deserving)
  • Best Supporting Actor – Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight (see previous blog)
  • Best Adapted Screenplay – Slumdog Millionaire
  • Best Original Screenplay – Milk (many writers tried to bring this film to the screen, Dustin Lance Black finally got it right)
  • Best Animated Feature – Wall-E (see previous blog)
  • Best Art Direction – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (it needs to win a couple of these)
  • Best Cinematography – Slumdog Millionaire
  • Best Costume Design – The Duchess (according to EW “Best" usually means biggest here see past winners Marie Antoinette and Elizabeth: The Golden Age)…”  I say respect the history.
  • Best Documentary – Trouble the Water (EW says Man on Wire, I think Trouble, which focuses on Katrina points to a moment in our history that needs to be remembered.
  • Best Documentary Short – The Witness – From the Balcony of Room 306 (haven’t seen it, but have heard good things)
  • Best Film Editing – Slumdog Millionaire
  • Best Foreign Language Film – Waltz with Bashir (EW picks The Class, I think they’re wrong.)
  • Best Make-up – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  • Best Original Score – Slumdog Millionaire (I hesitate to pick Slumdog so much, but the beauty of the film rests in its willingness to embrace a different kind of filmmaking. The movie is heavily influenced by Bollywood not just in its locations or the ethnic background of its character but in the style of its filmmaking, which includes a lot of the film’s music.)
  • Best Original Song – “Jai Ho,” Slumdog. (Obviously, this one should go to Bruce Springsteen’s title track to The Wrestler, but since it is not nominated, I pick “Jai Ho” from Slumdog. For many, the dance number to this song at the end of the film is one of the picture’s most memorable moments.)
  • Best Short Film, Animated: Presto. It’s by Pixar, and if you saw Wall-E in theaters, this was the short just before the feature. It’s also on the DVD.
  • Best Short Film, Live Action: Auf der Strecke (On the Line). EW picks the Holocaust-themed Spielzugland (Toyland) but admits Auf der Strecke should win.  It’s the only nominated live short with a trailer on imdb, and it’s won several international awards.
  • Best Sound Editing: The Dark Knight (see previous blog)
  • Best Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight (see previous blog)
  • Best Visual Effects: The Dark Knight (see previous blog)

Not sit back, grab a chicken finger, and enjoy the Oscars!

Jonathan Cavallero is a full-time lecturer in the College of Communications. He specializes in Italian-American images in American and international cinema, race and ethnicity in American cinema, american directors of italian descent and multiculturalism and pedagogy. He was awarded the Excellence in Teaching Award in 2007.